Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS63 KMKX 081519
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1019 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of showers and thunderstorms (60-85% chances)
  expected along a cold front today, which crosses the region
  west to east from 10 AM to 5 PM. A strong storm or two remains
  possible.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (45-80%) late
  Monday morning through Monday afternoon. A strong storm or two
  remains possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1020 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The cold front is currently (as of 1020 AM) over a Mineral Point
to Green Lake WI line, tracking eastward with a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms along it. Though haze from wildfire
smoke is slightly inhibiting daytime heating, the cloud cover
ahead of the front is far less than prior expectations,
suggesting that areas further south in Wisconsin (particularly
along and south of the I-94 corridor) will have some time to
destabilize before the front arrives (given the SW to NE
orientation of the front).

Fairly straight-lined hodographs ahead of the front, coupled
with strong deep layer shear and modest low / mid-level lapse
rates suggests that a marginal threat (level 1 out of 5) for
severe hail and wind gusts is present. At it`s current pace, the
front would pass southeastern WI and move out over Lake
Michigan around 4 PM. About an hour after that, the environment
for strong storms should be clear of the area, leaving only
15-40% chances for a stray shower or weaker storm behind the
front this evening, then dry weather into Tonight.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Today through Monday:

Mostly clear skies early this morning across southern Wisconsin.
The low pressure system in Manitoba will continue to move southeast
and slowly occlude today. The associated cold front is currently
off to our northwest extending from roughly Ontario through
Minnesota back into northwest Iowa and into the Central Plains.
This cold front is expected to pass through the state today and
enter into the forecast area around roughly 9 to 11 AM. As this
cold front moves through there is a 60 to 85% chance of rain
across southern Wisconsin with higher confidence toward central
Wisconsin. The higher confidence toward central Wisconsin due to
the better upper level support as the 500 mb jet strengths and
PVA increases from northwest to southeast. The better upper
level support will help the showers/storms currently along the
cold front in northwest WI to zipper down the state, leading to
some more widespread coverage across our northern counties and
potentially some more scattered convection (or a broken line)
for the southern counties. The cold front is expected to clear
the state to the east around roughly 3 to 5 PM.

Given the timeline this cold front moves through instability is
likely to be lacking for much of southern Wisconsin. Breezy
south to southwest winds this morning will help advect in some
higher dewpoints, but for much of the area surface based CAPE
will likely top out around 500 j/kg. This should given us enough
instability to have a few stronger storms as the shear will be
good (in some areas plentiful) around 35 to 50 kts. Far southern
and southeastern Wisconsin have the better chances for some
stronger storms as the timing of the frontal passage should be
late enough to allow good WAA to increase instability. Wind
looks to be the main concerns with any stronger storms.

As the cold front is moving east out of the state later this
afternoon and into the evening hours, guidance is hinting at
some redevelopment of rain behind the line. Its entirely
possible for some minor redevelopment, but given the timing that
this would occur its unlikely that this would be anything more
than some scattered rain showers. Depending on the model CAPE is
much better behind the line and skies look to clear quickly
behind the front, which could lead to some good instability, but
shear will be lacking and our forcing will be much weaker. With
the upper level low moving into the state there could be just
enough moisture and broad lift to generate some rain showers. So
did increase POPs behind the front from roughly 3 to 8 PM. Given
the low chance and coverage kept POPs around (15 to 30%).

Dry weather should briefly return overnight before the upper
level low moves overhead Monday. More widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms will be possible as the low moves through during
the afternoon and evening hours. CAPE is expected to be pretty
shallow, which should limit thunderstorm development, but
similar to today CAPE alone does not tell the whole story. Drier
air that is expected to move into the low levels (near sfc
layer) behind the cold front will likely lead to an inverted V
sounding. Looking at the forecast sounds you can see just that
which is normally a good indication of strong winds. Any
evaporational cooling could lead to accelerating winds toward
the surface, so will have to keep an eye on any thunderstorms
that develop Monday afternoon and evening.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Synopsis: The upper disturbance bringing rain/thunderstorms during
the short term period will start to pull away from Southern
Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday. Following the disturbance, low
pressure will linger near the southern Hudson Bay through Tuesday
afternoon, resulting in westerly winds but still pleasant
temperatures under mostly sunny skies. A second upper disturbance
will approach the Manitoba-Ontario border Tuesday evening,
encouraging surface cyclogenesis over the Lake Manitoba vicinity.
The newly-developed surface low will quickly progress toward the
Ontario-Quebec border on Wednesday, pulling a cold front into the
central Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon hours. Global
deterministic and ensemble-based guidance depict the boundary
stalling out across the region during the day on Thursday. The
front, combined with a warm and muggy air mass in place ahead of it,
will thus support the return of showers and thunderstorms from
Wednesday evening through Thursday. Evolution of the large-scale
pattern becomes uncertain late next week into next weekend.

Wednesday Night Through Thursday: Anticipate that the pattern will
turn more active with a front stalling in the general vicinity of
southern Wisconsin. Shower and thunderstorm chances (~30-50%) thus
return to the forecast during this time frame. It remains too early
to offer specifics regarding stronger storm or heavy rain potential,
with trends continuing to be monitored over the coming forecasts.

Friday Through Saturday: Evolution of the synoptic pattern becomes
far more uncertain, with available model solutions differing in the
placement of upper & surface features. It`s thus difficult to offer
specifics regarding additional shower/thunderstorm potential at this
time. What does appear more certain, however, is that a mild and
muggy air mass will linger across southern Wisconsin. Thus
anticipate that Summer-like conditions will continue through the end
of next week/into next weekend.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1020 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is approaching from
the west along a cold front. South to southwest winds ahead of
the front (with occasional gusts to 20 KT) will veer west as it
passes. A few strong storms may occur along the front,
particularly further south in Wisconsin. Additional 15-40%
chances for showers and weaker storms behind the front through
early this evening, then mostly dry weather for tonight.

Based on observations, the initial cumulonimbus bases are around
2,500 to 3,000 ft with the front (lower than prior expectations),
though this could lift an additional thousand feet or so as
daytime heating progresses.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 410 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

1010 mb low pressure is positioned over central Missouri this
evening, resulting in northeast winds across the open waters of Lake
Michigan. Winds will shift out of the southeast tonight as a cold
front moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Winds will
become due southerly on Sunday morning as the front draws near. The
front will cross Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon and evening,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is
unlikely, though an isolated stronger storm with small hail and
gusty winds can`t be ruled out across the far southern open waters.
Conditions are expected to dry out Sunday night.

1000 mb low pressure is expected to develop across Ontario on
Monday, maintaining south to southwest winds across the open waters.
The low will linger near the southern Hudson Bay Monday night
through Tuesday, ultimately progressing into Quebec Wednesday
morning. This progression will maintain primarily southwest winds
across Lake Michigan through mid-week. Additional chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday afternoon,
with severe weather not currently expected. A few showers are
possible over the northern third of Lake Michigan Tuesday and
Wednesday, with more widespread precipitation chances returning
Thursday. 1026 mb high pressure will progress toward the Hudson Bay
Thursday through Friday, resulting in an east-northeast wind shift
across Lake Michigan.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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